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Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 07:38:56 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Thu, Jan 10, 2002
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[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
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Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
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ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Thursday, Jan 10, 2002 at 0=
8:25AM EST    Commentary last updated: Thursday, Jan 10, 2002 at 09:12AM ES=
T  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratula=
tions Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQ=
UILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visi=
t: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have A=
dobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition =
of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Thursday, January 10, 20=
02   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
 [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   EC=
AR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 71 +4 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 53 +1 MAIN(CTR) 44 +3=
 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE) 43 NC SERC(SE) 64 +1 SPP(SP) 52 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 +2 =
WSCC(RK) 38 +5 WSCC(SW) 60 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] =
  Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 38 42 40 30 61 60 56 Max 44 45 48 43 =
38 66 66 60 Min 38 34 38 35 25 58 57 52 Range 6 11 10 8 13 8 9 8 StD-P 1.9 =
3.2 2.5 2.4 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.2 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to Se=
e Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discus=
sion:   It still appears we will lose the unseasonable warmth in the Plains=
 this weekend, but the true arctic remains bottled. Models tone down any Ea=
st Coast storm for the weekend and show signs of shifting a trough into the=
 West.   A cold front will push through the Northern Plains ending the reco=
rd warmth of recent days. But, I still do not see any brutal cold heading i=
nto the region in the short term(and longer) so numbers will continue on th=
e warmer side of normal. This warm air continues to spread out to the East =
and slowly redeveloping to the South as well. Weak to moderate weather syst=
ems will traverse the Plains and East with light amounts of rain and snow, =
nothing significant here. A stronger system crashes into the Pacific NW thi=
s weekend only to fall apart into the Great Basin high that has been anchor=
ed ! the last couple of weeks. My five day numbers for temperatures remain =
above normal almost coast to coast though again the Plains will be cooler t=
han recent days.    Tomorrow: Friday, January 11, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:=
  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE=
][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +2 ERCOT(SP)=
 57 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 46 +3 MAIN(CTR) 39 +3 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE=
) 40 +1 SERC(SE) 57 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +3 WSCC(NW) 43 +2 WSCC(RK) 41 +2 WSCC(SW)=
 61 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE=
 SP SW Mean 37 39 40 42 33 59 54 57 Max 43 49 47 45 43 65 65 61 Min 33 33 3=
5 39 24 55 46 52 Range 10 16 12 6 19 10 19 9 StD-P 2.7 4.4 3.0 1.6 4.5 2.7 =
4.0 2.8 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forec=
ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Saturday, January 12, 2002  =
 Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IM=
AGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(C=
TR) 38 +2 ERCOT(SP) 60 -2 FRCC(SE) 73 +5 MAAC(NE) 42 NC MAIN(CTR) 39 +5 MAP=
P(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 31 NC SERC(SE) 54 +4 SPP(SP) 53 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC=
(RK) 41 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Re=
g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 38 32 41 37 54 51 57 Max 38 45 42 44 43 6=
1 59 61 Min 31 33 27 37 31 49 40 53 Range 7 12 15 7 12 12 19 8 StD-P 2.0 3.=
6 3.8 2.0 3.2 3.8 4.8 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See =
Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Sunday, J=
anuary 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)  =
 [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +6 MAAC(NE) 44 +3 MA=
IN(CTR) 36 NC MAPP(HP) 31 -2 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +2 WS=
CC(NW) 38 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 -2 WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IM=
AGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 36 33 36 30 53 55 56 Max=
 37 43 36 43 43 58 60 61 Min 32 32 30 31 18 50 47 50 Range 5 11 6 12 25 8 1=
3 11 StD-P 1.5 3.0 1.6 3.4 7.3 3.1 3.8 3.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Cl=
ick Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   =
 Day 5: Monday, January 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volati=
lity Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on im=
age to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 61 -1 FRCC(SE) 73 +5 =
MAAC(NE) 40 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 -1 MAPP(HP) 28 -1 NPCC(NE) 30 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3=
 SPP(SP) 45 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 30 -3 WSCC(SW) 58 +1     Range Stand=
ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 31 33 3=
6 27 55 52 54 Max 36 38 41 40 35 58 61 59 Min 32 25 27 31 17 52 41 50 Range=
 4 13 14 9 18 6 20 9 StD-P 1.1 3.2 4.5 2.0 6.0 1.7 5.6 2.5 Count 10 10 10 1=
0 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vola=
tility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks c=
ontinue to indicate some cold air potential. I continue to disagree on the =
magnitude and southward extent. As I mentioned yesterday, they can verify c=
orrectly if you are one degree below normal as their forecast is a probabil=
ity scheme. I can't totally rule out some arctic air in the normally frigid=
 northern U.S. this time of year, but current patterns and charts convince =
me it would be extremely difficult to send this air very far South. The MRF=
 and its ensembles remain in the camp of a trough East and ridge holding in=
 the West. The European and Canadian models hint in the 6-10 day period of =
a pattern reversal with more of a trough in the West and ridge in the East.=
 This ridge would not have near the amplitude of the one that produced the =
record warm November and December, but it would! effectively choke off any =
cold air East of the Mississippi. I think the European/Canadian combo has d=
one a much better job than the MRF this year and may be a believable soluti=
on. The one change it does result in though is an opportunity to drive some=
 cold air into the sparsely populated areas of the Interior NW and Rockies.=
      Day 6: Tuesday, January 15, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 sum=
mary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [=
IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge) =
  [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 -1 ERCOT(SP) 59 -6 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 44 +3 M=
AIN(CTR) 31 -2 MAPP(HP) 23 -2 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 54 -3 SPP(SP) 41 -6 W=
SCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 56 NC     Range Standard Deviation [I=
MAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 28 34 36 27 51 51 52 Ma=
x 32 34 37 40 37 57 57 57 Min 27 22 31 31 16 47 44 47 Range 5 12 6 9 21 10 =
13 10 StD-P 1.0 4.0 1.9 2.1 7.0 3.5 4.5 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Her=
e  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: =
Wednesday, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility =
Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image t=
o enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 -4 ERCOT(SP) 55 -8 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(=
NE) 40 NC MAIN(CTR) 30 -3 MAPP(HP) 21 -6 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 52 -4 SPP(=
SP) 41 -5 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 31 -2 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 28 32 36 25 =
51 53 50 Max 37 33 35 41 32 57 64 57 Min 25 24 29 31 15 46 42 44 Range 12 9=
 6 10 17 11 22 13 StD-P 3.0 2.3 1.4 2.3 6.1 3.8 5.9 3.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9=
 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr=
ix    Day 8: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.  =
 Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Clic=
k on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 25 -8 ERCOT(SP) 45 -6 FRCC(SE)=
 60 -8 MAAC(NE) 31 -10 MAIN(CTR) 22 -10 MAPP(HP) 23 -10 NPCC(NE) 30 -4 SERC=
(SE) 41 -13 SPP(SP) 37 NC WSCC(NW) 37 -1 WSCC(RK) 24 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -3     =
Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean=
 27 30 32 38 27 52 52 51 Max 33 33 38 42 35 61 63 56 Min 23 28 28 34 22 45 =
42 47 Range 10 5 10 8 13 16 21 9 StD-P 2.9 1.4 2.2 2.3 4.1 4.3 5.7 3.7 Coun=
t 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the =
Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  D=
elta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][I=
MAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 29 -3 ERCOT(SP) 43=
 -14 FRCC(SE) 61 -5 MAAC(NE) 29 -3 MAIN(CTR) 31 -4 MAPP(HP) 34 -2 NPCC(NE) =
26 -5 SERC(SE) 41 -4 SPP(SP) 40 -4 WSCC(NW) 39 +1 WSCC(RK) 26 -2 WSCC(SW) 5=
1 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE S=
P SW Mean 29 32 31 39 28 51 50 52 Max 38 35 38 42 35 61 56 57 Min 24 28 26 =
35 23 45 42 49 Range 14 7 12 7 12 16 14 8 StD-P 2.9 2.0 3.3 1.7 4.0 4.4 4.5=
 2.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wi=
thin the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Saturday, January 19, 2002   Syncrasy=
's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAG=
E]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -4=
 ERCOT(SP) 50 -6 FRCC(SE) 62 -5 MAAC(NE) 35 -4 MAIN(CTR) 31 -5 MAPP(HP) 31 =
-1 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 44 -7 SPP(SP) 43 -5 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 29 -=
4 WSCC(SW) 54 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP N=
E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 29 32 34 23 49 44 44 Max 32 35 45 39 28 57 50 54 M=
in 24 22 23 29 13 42 34 35 Range 8 13 22 10 15 15 16 19 StD-P 3.5 4.5 4.9 4=
.0 5.0 2.9 5.1 8.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Fo=
recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed arou=
nd and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall=
?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apb=
energy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
